
Map of proposed route for California High Speed Rail
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California's High Speed Rail project has some very vocal and very influential critics. Perhaps the most vocal and influential is Dan Walters, who wrote in his column yesterday,
It's rare for any human endeavor to achieve perfection, but California's High-Speed Rail Authority has done it – albeit in reverse.
Every single independent review of its project to link the northern and southern halves of the state with a bullet train has concluded that it's not working. No exceptions. Not even one.
That's a pretty harsh judgment, but it is one that is becoming increasingly more common these days, as the challenges facing the High Speed Rail project seem to grow more insurmountable by the day.
An article last December in the L.A. Times pointed out the dilemma facing the High Speed Rail planners who are required by language in federal grants to begin construction of a section of rail that will have no purpose until further funds are allocated to connect it with a high population area:
Costing at least $4.15 billion, the segment would run from the tiny town of Borden to Corcoran, an area hit so hard by the recession and agriculture declines that it has been dubbed the New Appalachia...
Included in the plan are tracks, station platforms, bridges and viaducts, which would elevate the line through urban areas. The initial section, however, would not be equipped with maintenance facilities, locomotives, passenger cars or an electrical system necessary to power high-speed trains.
Therein lies the problem. The project must be built in segments, but with the estimates of the total funds required rising rapidly, many observers are unsure if there will ever be enough money to finish the project:
The state's Legislative Analyst's Office (LAO) issued a report that said the Authority had about $13.6 billion available. That wouldn't cover the project even if it met the authority's cost forecast: about $45 billion.
But LAO projected it could cost more: as much as $67 billion.
This uncertainty has already caused the San Francisco Examiner to speculate about whether the Transbay Transit Center, which is supposed to be the Northernmost terminal for High Speed Rail, "will amount to little more than a $1.5 billion bus station."
Of course, it's still possible that the High Speed Rail vision will one day become a reality. Perhaps the momentum established by building the first few sections will inspire more state and federal funding to be allocated. But in the meantime, questions will no doubt continue to bubble up from all corners of the state.
And the High Speed Rail Authority will have to come up with good answers to those questions:
The authority is supposed to be producing a "business plan" to answer all the questions, but its first draft was laughably skimpy and contained pie-in-the-sky projections of federal and private construction funds, ridership and operational revenues. A new draft is due later this year.
July 19th Update: Curt Pringle, who had served as Chairman of the High Speed Rail Authority for two years, announced he is resigning in order to focus on his full-time job as a lobbyist. Also, today Senator Alan Lowenthal is quoted as saying the High Speed Rail project is at a crossroads.
What do you think? Can the High Speed Rail still be successful? Post your comment below.